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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 30 2000
 
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE APPEARS TO BE MAKING A SLIGHT COMEBACK IN
INTENSITY BASED ON A SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 55 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.  HOWEVER...SINCE JOYCE IS STILL IN A SHEAR APTTERN AND
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER RELATIVE TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD DOWN TO 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/12. JOYCE HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK
JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST...BUT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE
LETTING UP BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THERE IS MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS MODEL FORECASTS...AND THE CONSENSUS HAS
JOYCE TRACKING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PACK AND TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE SHEAR LETTING UP AROUND 55W
LONGITUDE.  STEADY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS
AND THE SHIPS MODEL EVEN BRINGS JOYCE UP TO 93 KT IN 72 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 10.3N  53.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 10.4N  55.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 11.2N  57.6W    60 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 12.2N  59.9W    65 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 13.5N  62.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.5N  67.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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