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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000
 
ALTHOUGH INFRARED IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW A WELL DEFINED CENTER...A
RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWS A SMALL EYE TYPE FEATURE.  BASED ON
THIS...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 250/10 COMPARED TO 260/10 SIX
HOURS AGO.  MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IN 72 HOURS.  IT IS NOT CLEAR WHY THIS
IS SO EXCEPT THAT THE 00Z AVIATION RUN SHOWS A VERY WEAK LITTLE
TROUGH AT 500 MB NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF JOYCE IN 72 HOURS.  IN ANY
CASE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY BASED ON THE INITIAL MOTION UNTIL 72 HOURS WHEN
THE FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE 72
HOUR FORECAST POSITION SLIGHTLY FAVORS THE UKMET WHICH HAS THE
CENTER JUST WEST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IN 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND
THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUGGEST THAT THE TRACK COULD COMPLETELY MISS
THE ISLANDS.  IN ANY CASE IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL ABOUT THIS.

THE ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOOKED PRETTY CRUMMY
OVERNIGHT...BUT THE LAST COUPLE OF IMAGES SHOW A SMALL CDO POSSIBLY
REDEVELOPING NEAR THE CENTER.  OTHERWISE I MIGHT HAVE DECREASED THE
CURRENT 75 KNOT WIND SPEED A LITTLE.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND BRINGS THE WINDS TO 98 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS. 
SO THE WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 10.6N  47.5W    75 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 10.3N  49.3W    75 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 10.3N  51.6W    80 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 10.8N  53.9W    85 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 11.4N  56.2W    90 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 14.2N  60.0W    95 KTS
  
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