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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
 
JOYCE CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY..WITH COLD CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  A TRMM PASS AT 1742Z SHOWED A PINHOLE EYE UNDER THE OVERCAST. 
A LATER SSM/I PASS DID NOT SHOW THE EYE...BUT IT MAY HAVE BEEN TO
SMALL TO BE RESOLVED IN THE COARSER SSM/I DATA.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET TO 80 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11.  A RIDGE IS BUILDING BETWEEN JOYCE AND
ISAAC AS THEY SEPARATE...AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE JOYCE GENERALLY
WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...THE HURRICANE MAY
TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
NORTH OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE ACTUALLY WANTS
TO MOVE THE CYCLONE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST 24-36 HR BEFORE
TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST.  SINCE THERE IS NO SIGN OF SUCH A TURN
YET...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
WITH A WESTWARD MOTION FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION AT THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

JOYCE REMAINS A SMALL SYSTEM...AND AS SUCH IT COULD CHANGE STRENGTH
RATHER RAPIDLY DEPENDING ON SMALL CHANGES IN THE ENVIRONMENT.  WIND
SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN
INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING
OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD MOVE WEST AND TRY TO CATCH
UP WITH JOYCE.  SHOULD IT GET CLOSE ENOUGH...THE CURRENT GENERALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME HOSTILE.  IT IS NOTABLE THAT NO
INTENSITY FORECAST GUIDANCE TAKES JOYCE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
DURING THE PERIOD.  BASED ON ALL THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
TAKE JOYCE TO 95 KT IN 36 HR AND HOLD IT THERE.   
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 12.5N  41.6W    80 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  43.2W    85 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N  45.4W    90 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N  47.6W    95 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.5N  50.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     01/0000Z 13.0N  54.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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