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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 27 2000

INTENSIFICATION IS CONTINUING...AND BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK
ANALYSES FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON THE WIND SPEED IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.  JOYCE HAS A SMALL INNER CORE AND SUCH
TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN SPIN UP RATHER FAST OR...ALTERNATIVELY...
WEAKEN FAST.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS STILL UNIMPRESSIVE...BUT
VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WEAK OVER THE SYSTEM AND THE
WATERS ARE WARMER THAN 28 DEGREES C.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.

JOYCE CONTINUES TOWARD THE WEST.  AS NOTED EARLIER...SEVERAL OF THE
GUIDANCE MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BUT SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE INDICATION OF
THIS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL DEPICTIONS
OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

BASED ON GRADIENT WIND ANALYSES USING ADVANCED MICROWAVE SOUNDING
UNIT...AMSU...DATA FROM THE CIRA NESDIS RAMM TEAM AT COLORADO STATE
UNIVERSITY...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
A BIT.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/2100Z 12.6N  40.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N  42.6W    80 KTS
24HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N  44.8W    85 KTS
36HR VT     29/0600Z 12.7N  47.0W    90 KTS
48HR VT     29/1800Z 12.8N  49.0W    95 KTS
72HR VT     30/1800Z 13.0N  53.0W    95 KTS
 
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