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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000

JOYCE HAS INTENSIFIED.  SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL...TIGHTLY-
WOUND CLOUD PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY COLD CDO.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KNOTS AND 77 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 70-KNOT HURRICANE. 
EVEN THOUGH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...THE
ENVIRONMENT  APPEARS FAVORABLE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.

MOTION IS WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...13 KNOTS.  THE
AVN...GFDL AND VICBAR GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE HAS NOT
MUCH INDICATION OF A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE OBSERVED MOTION THUS
FAR.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...CERTAINLY ONE OF THE MOST
RELIABLE FOR TRACK PREDICTION...DEPICTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
BETWEEN ISAAC AND JOYCE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 12.4N  39.6W    70 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  41.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 12.5N  44.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 12.5N  46.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 12.5N  48.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 13.0N  52.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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