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HURRICANE JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
JOYCE HAS INTENSIFIED. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A SMALL...TIGHTLY-
WOUND CLOUD PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY COLD CDO. DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 65 KNOTS AND 77 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY...SO THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A 70-KNOT HURRICANE.
EVEN THOUGH UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...THE
ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST ALONG THE
LINES OF THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.
MOTION IS WEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED...13 KNOTS. THE
AVN...GFDL AND VICBAR GUIDANCE HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEST-SOUTHWEST
MOTION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT THERE HAS NOT
MUCH INDICATION OF A SOUTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE OBSERVED MOTION THUS
FAR. THE U.K. MET OFFICE GLOBAL MODEL...CERTAINLY ONE OF THE MOST
RELIABLE FOR TRACK PREDICTION...DEPICTS A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
BETWEEN ISAAC AND JOYCE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN
A MOSTLY WESTWARD MOTION...AS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/1500Z 12.4N 39.6W 70 KTS
12HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 41.6W 75 KTS
24HR VT 28/1200Z 12.5N 44.0W 80 KTS
36HR VT 29/0000Z 12.5N 46.0W 85 KTS
48HR VT 29/1200Z 12.5N 48.0W 90 KTS
72HR VT 30/1200Z 13.0N 52.0W 90 KTS
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