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TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
 
JOYCE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITH RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING A DEVELOPING EYE SIGNATURE.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB ARE 55 AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY.  THE VERY LATEST UW
OBJECTIVE ESTIMATE IS ALSO 65 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 60 KT AND JOYCE COULD BE A HURRICANE ALREADY BUT THERE
IS TIME ENOUGH TO WAIT FOR A CONSENSUS OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES. 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE.  NOT MUCH INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED GIVEN
THE CURRENT LIMITED OUTFLOW BUT JOYCE COULD SURPRISE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AS 280/12...BUT MIGHT BE EVEN
FASTER.  THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
THINKING OR TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 12.4N  38.1W    60 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 12.7N  40.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.7N  42.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.7N  44.9W    75 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 12.8N  47.0W    80 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.0N  51.0W    85 KTS
 
 
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