HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 26 2000
 
JOYCE GIVES THE APPEARANCE OF...AT BEST...A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT FROM SAB AND KGWC...AND 35
KT FROM TAFB.  CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER IS LIMITED...NOT WELL
ORGANIZED...AND NOT VERY COLD.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY AT 0416Z FROM THE
NRL TROPICAL CYCLONE WEB PAGE INDICATES THAT THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS NOT ALL THAT WELL DEFINED EITHER.  THIS WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY ONLY SLOWLY IN THE SHORT TERM. 
LONGER-TERM INTENSIFICATION WILL REQUIRE ISAAC GETTING OUT OF THE
WAY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/12.  MOST OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS A
SOUTHWARD COMPONENT AT VARYING PARTS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
PERHAPS AS A RESULT OF RIDGING AS ISAAC PULLS AWAY.  GIVEN THE LACK
OF CONSISTENCY AMONG THE MODELS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHWARD
COMPONENT...I AM GOING WITH A RELATIVELY STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
BUT STILL ON THE SPEEDY EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 11.7N  33.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 11.8N  35.7W    35 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 11.9N  38.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 12.0N  40.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 12.2N  42.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 12.5N  47.0W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN