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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

ISAAC CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE HURRICANE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATER AND EXPERIENCES SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  THE OUTFLOW REMAINS
GOOD TO EXCELLENT TO THE NORTH AND POOR TO RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/21.  ISAAC HAS ROUNDED THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND HAS MADE THE TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST.  RAPID RECURVATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE CYCLONE
GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK.

ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER COOLER WATER AND GENERALLY WEAKEN
AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNTIL 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 35.4N  54.1W    85 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 37.9N  51.8W    80 KTS
24HR VT     01/0000Z 41.0N  47.5W    75 KTS
36HR VT     01/1200Z 44.0N  41.5W    70 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/0000Z 47.0N  33.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0000Z 54.0N  13.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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