HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 29 2000

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD-FILLED...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING CONTINUES. 
HOWEVER ISAAC IS LIKELY TO REMAIN A POWERFUL HURRICANE FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR SO.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM BELOW HURRICANE
STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BY WHICH TIME ISAAC IS LIKELY TO
HAVE BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

MOTION IS NORTHWARD...IMPLYING THAT ISAAC IS CROSSING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS.  THERE ARE FEW CHANGES TO THE TRACK
FORECAST.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR IN A DAY
OR SO AS THE HURRICANE STARTS BECOMING INFLUENCED BY THE MID-
LATITUDE STEERING FLOW.  THE CURRENT OFFICAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT SOMEWHAT FASTER NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WIND AND SEAS RADII FOR THIS LARGE HURRICANE HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ON
THE BASIS OF 12Z SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/1500Z 32.0N  56.2W   105 KTS
12HR VT     30/0000Z 34.3N  56.0W   100 KTS
24HR VT     30/1200Z 37.0N  53.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 40.0N  49.0W    85 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 42.5N  44.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 47.0N  32.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN