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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 28 2000
 
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY.  ISAAC HAS
MAINTAINED AN EXCELLENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION.  INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 102 KT...AND A RECENT TIME-AVERAGED MEAN UW
OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATE GIVES 110 KT.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS
RAISED TO 105 KT.  ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATER
AND THE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO...SO
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.

THE TRACK IS NOW 310/14.  ISAAC CONTINUES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT WITH A STRONGER EASTWARD COMPONENT ON DAY 3 OF THE
FORECAST.  THE GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK...BUT
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD ON THE RATE OF ACCELERATION. 
HOWEVER...THE CORE MODELS NOGAPS...UKMET...AND GFDL ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT HERE AND THE CONSENSUS THEREOF IS USUALLY HARD TO
BEAT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 24.4N  52.4W   105 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 25.7N  54.1W   110 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 28.0N  55.7W   115 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.6N  56.5W   115 KTS
48HR VT     30/0600Z 33.5N  56.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 39.5N  49.5W   100 KTS
 
 
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