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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000

AN IRREGULAR EYE IS APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND T-NUMBERS ARE
UP TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 90
KNOTS.  THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING MORE IMPRESSIVE EXCEPT
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE HURRICANE.  SINCE THE SHEAR HAS
RELAXED AND ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER WARMER WATERS...RE-
STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR HURRICANE SEEMS A GOOD BET.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WEAKENING SHOULD HAVE COMMENCED AS THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/12.  THE PROGNOSTIC REASONING BEHIND
THE TRACK FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE
ITS TREK AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.  BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AND APPROACHING THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.  TRACK
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST MERELY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ONE.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/1500Z 21.4N  48.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     28/0000Z 22.4N  50.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     28/1200Z 24.2N  52.3W    95 KTS
36HR VT     29/0000Z 26.3N  54.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  55.5W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/1200Z 35.5N  55.5W    90 KTS
 
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