HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 27 2000
 
A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0259Z FROM THE NRL WEB PAGE SHOWED THAT ISAAC HAS
DEVELOPED A NEW EYEWALL...AT 45 NM IN DIAMETER CONSIDERABLY LARGER
THAN THE ONE IT HAD A COUPLE DAYS AGO.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE STILL 80 KT...AND THE UW OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE IS 90 KT.  WITH THE FORMATION OF A NEW EYEWALL THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE AND BUMPS THE INTENSITY UP
TO 85 KT.  THE OVERALL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH NOT GREAT...IS
IMPROVING AND ISAAC WILL BE MOVING OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER WATERS.  ALL
OF THE ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE AGAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12.  ISAAC IS MOVING AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIMETER OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  WITH A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TO
THE RIGHT BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ADJUSTS THE PREVIOUS 72
HOUR FORECAST POINT TO THE RIGHT AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE UKMET AND
GFDL.

ON THIS TRACK ISAAC WOULD PASS WELL TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA.


FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 20.7N  47.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 21.7N  49.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 23.1N  51.2W    95 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 25.0N  53.3W   100 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 27.0N  55.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 33.0N  56.5W   100 KTS
 
 
NNNN