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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2000
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO DRAMATIC CHANGES WITH ISAAC THIS MORNING.  AN
EYE/WARM SPOT IS STILL APPARENT IN IR IMAGERY...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
HAVE WARMED A LITTLE BIT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 90 KT.  THERE HAS BEEN NO NEW MICROWAVE
IMAGERY TO ASSESS THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE SO THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
ALSO REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE...100 KT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF ISAAC MAY BE ENCOUNTERING
SOME RESISTANCE.  INTENSITY GUIDANCE OFFERS A MIXED BAG...WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTING A MODEST DECLINE AND THE GFDL A MODEST
INCREASE IN STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN SHEAR DEVELOPING OVER THE SYSTEM BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE ENOUGH TO MARKEDLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS
ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  ISAAC WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF A MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK.  THE NEW UKMET
REMAINS FASTER THAN EVERYTHING ELSE BUT NO LONGER HAS THE TURN TO
THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0900Z 16.9N  39.9W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/1800Z 17.5N  41.2W   100 KTS
24HR VT     26/0600Z 18.3N  43.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     26/1800Z 19.2N  45.0W    95 KTS
48HR VT     27/0600Z 20.0N  47.0W    90 KTS
72HR VT     28/0600Z 22.0N  51.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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