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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 24 2000

THE EYE HAS MADE A REAPPEARANCE ON VISIBLE AND ENHANCED IR
IMAGES...SO THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN NUDGED BACK UP TO 100 KNOTS. 
ALTHOUGH SOME MORE FLUCTUATIONS ARE LIKELY DUE TO INNER CORE CHANGES
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WE HAVE ESSENTIALLY NO SKILL IN
PREDICTING THESE CHANGES.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL
MERELY MAINTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY FOR A WHILE.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD SOME WEAKENING MAY OCCUR DUE TO VERTICAL SHEAR...SINCE
ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS INDICATE INCREASING
SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS
GREATER WEAKENING...BUT PRIMARILY DUE TO DECREASED SST...WHICH DOES
NOT SEEM TO BE TOTALLY REALISTIC.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR THE
REASONING BEHIND IT.  MOTION REMAINS 290/10. ISAAC SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MOVE WNW TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND
ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS...WHICH ARE
IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT.  THIS NHC FORECAST IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO
THE GFDL/UKMET/NOGAPS CONSENSUS...GUNS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 16.0N  38.3W   100 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N  39.7W   100 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 17.1N  41.7W   100 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 17.8N  43.6W   100 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 20.0N  49.5W    90 KTS
 
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