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HURRICANE ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 23 2000
 
A TINY EYE FEATURE HAS PERSISTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALL DAY.
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UP TO 90/77/77 KNOTS FROM
TAFB/SAB/KGWC AND OBJECTIVE T NUMBERS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS MODEL LIMITS
INTENSIFICATION TO 92 KNOTS...BUT THE OFFICIAL WILL GO A LITTLE
HIGHER SINCE SHIPS WAS INITIALIZED WITH ONLY 70 KNOTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT TO 285/10.  THE
MODELS THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS.  THE UKMET IS
CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE GFDL.  THE LATEST AVIATION MODEL SHOW A
RATHER WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 500 MB ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND SLOWS THE FORWARD MOTION TO ABOUT FIVE KNOTS BY 48
HOURS.  THIS IS CLOSER TO THE GFDL THAN THE UKMET MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 14.8N  34.7W    85 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.3N  36.3W    95 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N  38.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.2N  39.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 16.6N  40.7W    95 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N  42.5W    95 KTS

 
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