HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2000

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS BETTER THAN 24
HOURS AGO. THERE IS OUTFLOW AND DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.
SHIP 9MIM5 REPORTED 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH AND 1008 MB PRESSURE.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE SHOULD BE AROUND 1007 MB OR
LOWER.  INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 25 KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  

SATELLITE FIXES FROM ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 340 DEGREES AT 12
KNOTS.  THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL LIKELY BE
INLAND OR NEAR THE COAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  

THE BIG UNCERTAINTY IS HOW STRONG WILL BE AT LANDFALL SINCE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS DECREASED ITS FORWARD SPEED.  IT COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM IF THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPS AS FORECAST
BY GLOBAL MODELS.  HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE INDICATED AT
THIS TIME SINCE THE DEPRESSION HAS ALREADY HAD PLENTY OF
OPPORTUNITIES TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS WHILE MOVING
THROUGH WHAT WE RECOGNIZED AS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.  OBVIOUSLY IT
WAS NOT FAVORABLE BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION NEVER INTENSIFIED. 

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL CHECK THE DEPRESSION IN A FEW
HOURS AND PERHAPS BOTH MOTION AND INTENSITY WILL HAVE TO BE
ADJUSTED.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 25.1N  87.1W    25 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 27.0N  88.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 29.0N  88.0W    30 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 31.0N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     23/0600Z 32.5N  85.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN