HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 20 2000

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION.  THE DEPRESSION
IS MAINTAINING SOME DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE
ESTIMATED CENTER...AND LAST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED A POORLY-
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  SHIP AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 25 KNOTS.  THERE IS A SLIGHT
WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION
ENCOUNTERS LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IN...WHAT WAS
PERCEIVED AS...A QUITE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE PAST DAY OR
SO.  THEREFORE...NO INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.   
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
STRONGER MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLIES.  THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY
EAST OF THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SIMILAR TO THE U.K. MET.
OFFICE AND NCEP GLOBAL MODEL TRACKS...AND SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE
LATEST GFDL COUPLED MODEL FORECAST.  

A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW MORNING.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 24.4N  86.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 26.5N  87.5W    25 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 29.7N  87.4W    25 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  85.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     23/0000Z 34.5N  82.0W    20 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     24/0000Z...DISSIPATED 
 
NNNN