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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 20 2000
 
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN
POORLY-DEFINED AND NON-EXISTENT.  THE BEST ESTIMATE...BASED ON A
LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AT CABO SAN ANTONIO CUBA AT 12Z...IS THAT
IT IS CROSSING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE NOAA
HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED 35 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE
CENTER AND CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
THUS...IT WILL NOT BE DECLARED DISSIPATED YET.
 
THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/18.  THE COMBINATION
OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM IN THE U.S. GREAT PLAINS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL NORTHWARD
TURN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE TO THE
NORTHEAST.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO.  SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND IS FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PROBLEMATIC.  THE CYCLONE IS ON THE VERGE
OF BREAKING OPEN INTO AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED TROUGH...AND THAT COULD
EASILY OCCUR LATER TODAY.  ON THE OTHER HAND...LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL STAY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR 24-36 HR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING.  THIS
IS ANOTHER REASON WHY THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING DECLARED DISSIPATED.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO EXTREMES.  IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN IF THE DEPRESSION DISSIPATES THE REMNANTS
ARE LIKELY TO BE A WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM ON THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 22.6N  85.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 24.3N  87.1W    25 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 27.0N  88.7W    25 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 30.0N  88.7W    25 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 32.5N  86.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     23/1200Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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