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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 19 2000

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED...PROBABLY A DIURNAL
FLUCTUATION...BUT THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED
WITH GOOD UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE.  WITH FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM.  THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST GFDL COUPLED MODEL AND A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.

NO IMPORTANT CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR THE
PROGNOSTIC REASONING.  MOTION CONTINUES AT ABOUT 295/14.  THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD FOLLOW THE STEERING FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED TO THE EAST OF
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE LATEST NCEP GLOBAL MODEL RUN
DOES NOT SHOW PENETRATION OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES INTO THE
GULF DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES NOT SHOW ACCELERATION AFTER THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
NORTHERN GULF.  THIS TRACK IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE SUITE.

PASCH
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 20.1N  81.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 21.1N  83.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 22.7N  85.3W    40 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 24.5N  86.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 26.5N  86.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 30.0N  85.0W    60 KTS
 
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