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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
NIGHTTIME MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY CONTINUES TO INDICATE A POORLY
DEFINED CIRCULATION...WITH THE ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE
EASTERN QUADRANT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ALL 25 KT...SO
THE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 30 KT ON THIS ADVISORY MAY BE A LITTLE
GENEROUS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN EARLIER.  A
LOW/MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS SHOULD MOVE THE
CYCLONE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE SAVE
CLIPER IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL BE LITTLE CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THE DEPRESSION SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR 15N58W.  THIS...COMBINED WITH THE CURRENT POOR
ORGANIZATION...SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE FIRST 24 HR OR SO.
LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SHOULD FORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AFTER 24 HR OR SO...WHICH
COULD PRODUCE UPPER LEVEL EASTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE.  THE NOGAPS
AND AVN HAVE MAJOR DIFFERENCE IN HOW STRONG OF EASTERLIES...SO THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL BE NUDGED ONLY SLIGHTLY UPWARD AT THIS TIME.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST TO THE
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS BEING ISSUED FOR THE DUTCH LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0300Z 15.9N  54.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/1200Z 16.2N  56.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     17/0000Z 16.4N  58.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     17/1200Z 16.5N  61.7W    40 KTS
48HR VT     18/0000Z 16.5N  65.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     19/0000Z 16.5N  71.0W    55 KTS
 
 
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