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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
ANIMATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IN THE LOW LEVELS.  CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED OVER 24 HOURS
BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED.  THE LATEST QUICKSCAT PASS IN THIS
AREA MISSED THE DISTURBANCE...BUT DEPRESSION ADVISORIES ARE
INITIATED BASED ON VISIBLE IMAGERY.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/14.  THE MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD WITH
TIME...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW A GENERAL WESTWARD OR WEST NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION TO CONTINUE...BRINGING THE SYSTEM INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
CURRENT TRACK IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP LAYER BAM AND THE
GFDL.  NOGAPS HAS THE SAME IDEA BUT IS A LITTLE SLOWER.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH APPEARS TO BE HELPING THE
OUTFLOW.  THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE...AND A MODEST AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE
AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO BE MORE THAN SHIFOR BUT LESS
THAN SHIPS AND THE GFDL.
 
THE GOVERNMENTS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK HAVE
BEEN CONTACTED AND HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO ISSUE WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS
AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 15.6N  53.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 16.0N  55.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 16.3N  58.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 16.5N  61.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 16.5N  64.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 16.5N  70.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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