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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 18 2000
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NO TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER
LAND.  THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN REPORTED 32 KNOTS AT 07Z AND DOPPLER
WINDS ALOFT FROM THE JAX RADAR WERE NEAR 50 KNOTS NEAR THE C-MAN. 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS PUT AT 35 KNOTS AND IS ONLY FOR OVER WATER
WINDS.  THE SHIPS MODEL IS BELOW 30 KNOTS FROM 24 TO 72 HOURS AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.  THE SYSTEM IS LOSING
OR HAS LOST TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND LOOKS MORE LIKE AN OCCLUDED
FRONTAL LOW ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 025/10.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOVING OVER EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS NEAR
THE COAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. 
THE TRACK IS SHIFTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0900Z 30.4N  82.6W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     18/1800Z 32.0N  81.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     19/0600Z 34.3N  78.9W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     19/1800Z 37.5N  75.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/0600Z 39.5N  72.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     21/0600Z 43.0N  62.5W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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