HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/11.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE SCENARIO OF GORDON LOCATED WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SHOWING A LANDFALL IN A LITTLE
MORE THAN 18 HOURS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF COAST. 
THE FORWARD MOTION IS ACCELERATED TO 15 KNOTS OR SO AS THE TRACK
MOVES INLAND BUT ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.

THE LATEST RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTED 981 MB AT 80 KNOTS AT 850 MB JUST
WEST OF THE CENTER.  THE TAMPA RADAR TEMPORARILY SHOWED A FAIRLY
WELL DEFINED CENTER OR EYE ABOUT 30 N MI WIDE BUT THIS FEATURE HAS
DETERIORATED.  FOLLOWING THE LIMITED GUIDANCE...THE WIND SPEED IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 75 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL.

NO CHANGES ARE MADE TO THE GULF COAST WARNINGS.  THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH ALONG THE U.S. SOUTHEAST COAST IS CHANGED TO A WARNING AND THE
WATCH IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SOUTH CAROLINA.  THIS IS BASED ON THE
FORECAST TRACK AND RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OCCURING
ALONG THIS AREA.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 26.9N  84.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 28.6N  83.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 31.0N  82.4W    50 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     18/1800Z 33.5N  80.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     19/0600Z 36.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     20/0600Z 40.5N  73.0W    30 KTS
 
 
NNNN