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TROPICAL STORM GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
RECENT AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT GORDON IS MOVING ABOUT 035/08
KNOTS.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AHEAD A
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC.  THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST THEREFORE...GORDON SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK
UNTIL LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS A LITTLE
BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE GFDL AND THE FSU EXPERIMENTAL SUPERENSEMBLE
AND CLOSE TO THE UKMET. A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ACCORDINGLY.  IN ADDITION...DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND ABOUT 100 N MI
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  THEREFORE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS
NECESSARY FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS GRADUALLY IMPROVING AND THE RECON REPORTED A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 992 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 68 KNOTS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT IDEAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
HOWEVER...INTENSITY GUIDANCE MAKES GORDON A HURRICANE AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
IT IS A BIT EARLY TO FOCUS ON A PARTICULAR LANDFALL LOCATION.  ALL
INTERESTS FROM MISSISSIPPI TO FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR GORDON.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/1500Z 23.9N  86.1W    55 KTS
12HR VT     17/0000Z 25.0N  85.4W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/1200Z 27.0N  84.6W    70 KTS
36HR VT     18/0000Z 28.8N  83.7W    75 KTS
48HR VT     18/1200Z 31.0N  82.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     19/1200Z 36.0N  79.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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