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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000

THE DEPRESSION IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS ON THE
VERGE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THE
SYSTEM LOOKS IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.   HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL CENTER WITH A STRONG CONVECTIVE BAND
TO THE EAST...THE SURFACE CENTER IS STILL DETACHED FROM THE MID-
LEVEL CENTER.  EXCELLENT REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING ALONG
THE NORTH COAST OF YUCATAN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IT IS
EXPECTED THAT EVENTUALLY THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED
AND STRENGTHENING WILL BEGIN. 

THE FUTURE TRACK IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SHOWS A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK BUT IT IS HARD TO
IGNORE THE GFDL WHICH CONSISTENTLY...FOR THE PAST TWO RUNS...HAS
TURNED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.  BASED ON THE GFDL OUTPUT AND THE READJUSTMENT OF THE
EXPECTED SURFACE CENTER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT A LITTLE BIT.  

DUE TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...AND WEEKEND ACTIVITIES
COMING...IT IS URGED THAT ALL INTERESTS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS A POTENTIAL THREAT TO
ANY PORTION OF THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO TEXAS. 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z 21.7N  88.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0600Z 22.3N  88.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/1800Z 23.0N  88.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     17/0600Z 23.8N  88.6W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/1800Z 25.0N  88.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     18/1800Z 27.5N  89.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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