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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...SURFACE AND UPPER AIR
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS STILL OVER LAND BUT READY TO MOVE
OFFSHORE JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF MERIDA.  THE CIRCULATION IS
BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY AND THE PRESSURE IS ABOUT 1004 MB BUT
STILL NOT ALIGNED WITH THE VIGOROUS MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER WHICH
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF YUCATAN. CANCUN RAOB
REPORTED 30-KNOT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT LOW-LEVELS THIS
MORNING.

AS FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODELS...UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS
INCREASED OVER THE SYSTEM SO ANY STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.
HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM SURVIVES LONG ENOUGH...SHEAR MAY RELAX AND
IN ADDITION...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE OVER AN
AREA OF HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STRENGTHENING.
THIS THOUGHT IS REFLECTED IN THE INTENSITY OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE GFDL CHANGED ITS
TUNE AGAIN SUGGESTING A TRACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST LATER IN THE
PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE SHOWING
A SLOW NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRACK AS SUGGESTED BY NCEP GLOBAL
MODELS.  HOWEVER...THIS TRACK MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED LATER IF THE
CENTER REFORMS TO THE EAST CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION.  

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 21.6N  88.9W    30 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  89.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 22.5N  90.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 23.5N  90.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 24.5N  91.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 26.5N  91.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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