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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS ABLE TO FIND A
SMALL SURFACE CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA... AND ADVISORIES ARE INTIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
ELEVEN.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/9.  THE DEPRESSION WILL BE SPENDING THE
NEXT 18 TO 24 HOURS OVER THE YUCATAN BEFORE ENTERING THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF TOMORROW.  THE GFDL SOLUTION...WHICH TAKES A HURRICANE
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITHIN 48 HOURS...SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THAT
THE DEPRESSION HAS FORMED FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...AND WILL BE UNABLE
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY OVER LAND.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MUCH SLOWER
AND NEAR THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM.

IF THE CENTER SURVIVES THE TRIP OVER THE YUCATAN...AND IT IS SMALL
ENOUGH THAT IT MAY NOT SURVIVE...INTENSIFICATION TO A STORM IS
LIKELY OVER THE VERY WARM GULF WATERS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 20.0N  87.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.9N  88.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N  90.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 22.0N  90.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 22.7N  90.6W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 24.0N  91.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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