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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB
SUGGEST THAT FLORENCE HAS DROPPED BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AND IS
NOW A TROPICAL STORM. FLORENCE IS NOW MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  IN
36 HOURS...OR SOONER...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOSING TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...AND BY 48 HOURS THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
ABSORBED BY A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HIGHER LATITUDES.
 
FLORENCE IS NOW WELL EMBEDDED IN THE FAST STEERING FLOW ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE ACCELERATION OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND THE MOTION IS NOW 045/27 KNOTS.  BASED ON THE
LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE FSU ENSEMBLE FORECAST...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AND SHOWS THE CENTER PASSING NEAR EASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND WITHIN ABOUT
24 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 38.9N  58.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 41.9N  54.6W    55 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 48.5N  51.3W    50 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/1200Z 58.0N  50.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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