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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 16 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/20.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
ACCELERATES FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD IN ADVANCE OF A MAJOR TROUGH IN
THE WESTERLIES MOVING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MOST RECENT FIX DATA.  THE
CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO 50 DEGRESS NORTH LATITUDE IN 48 HOURS
AND SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL BY THEN.

AN AIRCRAFT REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 988 MB AND THEN 992 MB A FEW
HOURS LATER.  THE MAXIMUM WIND SPEED AT 850 MB WAS 60 KNOTS BUT THEY
MAY HAVE MISSED THE HIGHEST WINDS.  THE WIND SPEED IS LEFT AT 65
KNOT BUT MAY BE LOWERED LATER TODAY.  LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND SPEED IS
FORECAST UNTIL COLDER WATER IS ENCOUNTERED IN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

THE CENTER IS AT ITS POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH TO BERMUDA AND
CONDITIONS THERE SHOULD NOW BEGIN TO IMPROVE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/0900Z 33.2N  65.2W    65 KTS
12HR VT     16/1800Z 35.5N  62.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     17/0600Z 39.0N  57.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     17/1800Z 43.5N  53.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     18/0600Z 50.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     19/0600Z 58.0N  48.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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