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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2000
 
FLORENCE IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  CONSEQUENTLY IT IS EXPECETD
TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 13 KNOTS AND ACCELERATING.
FLORENCE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND PASS VERY NEAR OR JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA BETWEEN 12
AND 24 HOURS.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS.
 
RECENT DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER WHERE
THE FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS PEAKED AT 58 KNOTS.  IN ADDITION...DEEP
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY SO INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE
LIKELY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/1500Z 29.8N  70.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     16/0000Z 31.2N  68.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     16/1200Z 33.3N  65.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     17/0000Z 36.0N  62.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     17/1200Z 39.5N  59.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/1200Z 50.0N  51.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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