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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
 
FLORENCE CONTINUES TO SUFFER UNDER NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COURTESY OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING OFF U.S. EAST COAST.
CONVECTION IS DEEP BUT LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  SINCE THE
SYSTEM HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THERE
IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING IF THE FLOW BECOMES
LESS SHEARED.
 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  A
VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND CREATE AN
INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE EXTREME
WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  ALL GUIDANCE IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BERMUDA THAT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 29.5N  73.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 29.7N  72.8W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 30.3N  70.1W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 32.4N  66.6W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 36.0N  64.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 45.0N  60.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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