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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 14 2000
 
THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
OVER THE SYSTEM...AND AS A RESULT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FLORENCE HAS
BECOME SOMEWHAT DISTORTED.  THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT
THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED.  CENTRAL PRESSURE IS UP TO 993 MB AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS...WHICH IS PROBABLY
GENEROUS.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME RATHER DISORGANIZED...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED AND NOW SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THERE IS STILL
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-STRENGTHENING.
 
THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.  A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD...AMPLIFY...AND
CREATE AN INCREASING WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC.  THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE FLORENCE NORTHEASTWARD OR NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN.
 
SINCE THE PROJECTED TRACK IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND GIVEN THE
USUAL UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECASTS...A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR BERMUDA LATER THIS MORNING.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 29.5N  73.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 29.4N  73.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 30.0N  70.5W    55 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 31.5N  67.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 34.0N  65.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     17/0600Z 43.0N  61.0W    60 KTS
  
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