HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 13 2000
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE THAT FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
STORM.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE ABOUT 50 KT AND THE PRESSURE
WAS UP TO 989 MB.  THE AIR CREW ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS TO STILL BE
55 TO 60 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO THE LATTER VALUE. 
DEEP CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.  FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED DESPITE AN
IMPROVED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...AND ITS LACK OF MOVEMENT HAS
NO DOUBT LOCALLY LOWERED THE SSTS.  FLORENCE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO RESTRENGTHEN ONCE IT BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM ITS
PRESENT LOCATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL STATIONARY.  THERE HAS BEEN A SUBTLE
CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT INCREASES THE POTENTIAL THREAT TO
BERMUDA.  VIRTUALLY ALL THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE FURTHER TO
THE EAST...AND THE LASTEST GFDL TRACK HAS FLORENCE PASSING VERY
CLOSE TO BERMUDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT AS FAR AS THE GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 30.5N  73.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  73.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 30.5N  71.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 31.2N  69.1W    70 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 33.0N  66.5W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 39.0N  63.0W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN