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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 13 2000
 
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT WILL BE IN THE CENTER OF FLORENCE
SHORTLY AFTER THE RELEASE OF THIS ADVISORY.  THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DECREASING...BUT THE OUTFLOW PATTERN TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER IS IMPROVING AND SOME NEW CONVECTION IS
GOING OFF NEAR THE CENTER.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY OR INTENSITY FORECAST PENDING NEW INFORMATION FROM THE
RECON AIRCRAFT.  

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT FLORENCE HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS MORNING. 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES IS ERODING AND
FLORENCE SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO DRIFT EASTWARD.  BY 48 HOURS A MAJOR
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE ATLANTIC COAST AND ACCELERATE
FLORENCE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  THERE COULD BE A SOUTHEASTERLY DRIFT
FOR A TIME...WHICH WOULD SLOW THE ACCELERATION.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSE TO
THE UKMET. 

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 30.9N  73.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 31.0N  73.5W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  73.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     15/0000Z 31.3N  71.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/1200Z 32.5N  69.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/1200Z 37.0N  66.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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