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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000
 
HURRICANE FLORENCE HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE FEATURE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO NEAR -70C IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL. 
OUTER BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED...WHILE THE OUTFLOW IS
CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY...65 KT...BASED ON THE BETTER
DEFINED EYE AND THE CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/4.  FLORENCE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT 
FLORENCE WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND 13/00Z UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MID-
LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH.  ALTHOUGH THE APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
WEAK...IT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PICK UP THE HURRICANE AND
MOVE IT TO THE EAST AWAY FROM THE U.S. MAINLAND.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK... ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER
AFTER 36 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS SIMILAR TO GFDL AND UKMET
SOULTIONS...ONLY SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THOSE FORECAST TRACKS.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST.
NOW THAT FLORENCE HAS AN ESTABLISHED EYE FEATURE...SOME ADDITIONAL
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NIGHTTIME
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 31.0N  73.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 31.3N  73.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 31.6N  73.0W    75 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 31.8N  71.7W    75 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 32.0N  70.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     16/0000Z 33.5N  67.5W    75 KTS

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