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HURRICANE FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 12 2000
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A 4 MB
DROP IN CENTRAL PRESSURE OVER A THREE HOUR PERIOD LATE THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELLIPTICAL EYEWALL ABOUT
25 NM IN DIAMETER.  WHILE THERE WERE NO FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS HIGHER
THAN 65 KT...THE CREW ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS IN THE 65 TO 70 KT
RANGE OVER A SUBSTANTIAL AREA NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  GIVEN THE
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE INNER CORE...THE PRESSURE FALLS...AND
THE SURFACE WIND ESTIMATE...FLORENCE IS BEING UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/3.  FLORENCE REMAINS CAUGHT IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL NOT CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR ANOTHER
DAY OR TWO.  ALL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN AGREEMENT THAT FLORENCE
WILL NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD PROGRESS.  A MID-LATITUDE
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST BY THE AVN AND UKMET MODELS TO ERODE THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND A
SECOND...STRONGER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SCOOP UP FLORENCE AFTER 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
IS CLOSE TO AN AVERAGE OF THE GFDL...THE UKMET...AND NOGAPS
SOLUTIONS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 30.8N  73.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 31.1N  73.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 31.4N  73.5W    70 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 31.5N  73.0W    75 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 31.7N  72.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 32.5N  69.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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