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TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 11 2000
 
WE ARE REMINDED ONCE AGAIN THAT THERE IS NO SUBSTITUTE FOR AIRCRAFT
RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS.  WHILE THE DVORAK SATELLITE TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATED AN INTENSITY OF 35 KT...THE RECON FOUND A LARGE AREA OF
WINDS AT THE 1000 FT LEVEL IN EXCESS OF 60 KT...AND EVEN A SMALL
AREA OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF 75 KT ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. 
THIS SUPPORTS SURFACE WINDS OF 60 TO 65 KT.  I WOULD LIKE TO SEE
THESE WINDS PERSIST A BIT BEFORE MAKING FLORENCE A HURRICANE.

A BALL OF CONVECTION HAS ROTATED HALFWAY AROUND THE CENTER
OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS...AND IN RECENT IMAGES THIS CONVECTION HAS
PULLED THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AROUND WITH IT.  THE LAST RECON FIX WAS
EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND WE EXPECT AN ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE LARGER CIRCULATION IS MOVING AT 240/5.  MODEL
GUIDANCE IS WILDLY DIVERGENT...WHICH IS COMMON WITH WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENTS.  HOWEVER...NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FLORENCE
WILL ULTIMATELY TURN EASTWARD WITHOUT GETTING VERY CLOSE TO THE U.S
EAST COAST.  FLORENCE IS STILL TIED UP WITH AN UPPER LEVEL COLD LOW
THAT IS SHEARING THE SYSTEM...AND WHILE FLORENCE COULD EASILY REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH...NOT MUCH MORE STRENGTHENING THAN THAT IS
EXPECTED

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 30.0N  72.7W    60 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 29.7N  73.5W    60 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 29.6N  74.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.6N  74.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 30.0N  75.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 31.0N  74.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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