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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2000
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HAS ACQUIRED
SUFFICIENT TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE THEREFORE INITIATED ON T.D. TEN.  A
QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SHOWED A FEW WIND VECTORS...MOSTLY RAIN-
FLAGGED...OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
TO SEE IF THE SYSTEM IS TRULY THAT STRONG.

THE DEPRESSION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ELONGATED UPPER-LEVEL LOW THAT
IS PROVIDING SOME SHEAR AND LIMITING OUTFLOW.  DEEP CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO A SMALL AREA SOUTH OF THE CENTER BUT THERE IS SHALLOW
CONVECTION IN BANDS DEVELOPING ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. 
WHILE THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM IN SHORT ORDER...WITH
A LESS THAN OPTIMAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN...RAPID STRENGTHING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/5.  A MID-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST IS PROVIDING THE STEERING FLOW BUT THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THE UKMET KEEPS THIS RIDGE IN PLACE LONGER
THAN THE AVN AND TAKES THE DEPRESSION SLOWLY WESTWARD...BUT MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RECURVATURE TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
CALLS FOR RELATIVELY LITTLE MOTION OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 30.4N  72.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 30.2N  73.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 30.1N  73.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 30.0N  74.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 30.5N  73.5W    55 KTS
 
 
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