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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2000
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.  SHIPS OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THERE MAY BE TWO LOW-
LEVEL CENTERS WITHIN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  ONE CENTER
IS NEAR 26.5N 93.5W...WITH THE MAIN CENTER FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO
THE DEEP CONVECTION....WHICH WAS USED IN THIS ADVISORY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND
BUOY REPORTS.

THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR
REASONING.  MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A TRACK IN A
GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE CENTER
PASSING CLOSE TO CAMERON LOUISIANA IN ABOUT 6 TO 9 HOURS. HOWEVER...
SINCE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS SO BROAD...LANDFALL COULD BE
ANYWHERE BETWEEN PORT ARTHUR TEXAS AND INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
...IF A CENTER REMAINS INTACT. 
 
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL...
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH COULD BE REACHED LATER
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPRESSION AND THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH TIGHTENS UP.  HOWEVER...ANY TROPICAL STORM WINDS
WOULD LIKELY BE BRIEF AND MAINLY CONFINED TO SQUALLS WELL EAST OF
THE CENTER.  AS A REMINDER...WINDS WILL BE HIGHER A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
OPERATIONS.  SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WERE
REPORTED EARLIER THIS EVENING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER IN
BRIEF SQUALLS.
 
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 29.0N  93.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 30.5N  93.5W    30 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
24HR VT     10/0000Z 32.5N  93.3W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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