HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000
 
PERSISTENT SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON ERNESTO AND THE CLOUD PATTERN
HAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATED TODAY.  LOW CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATE THAT A
CLOSED CIRCULATION NO LONGER EXISTS...AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW A STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE.  THE WAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT ERNESTO IS
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
GUIDANCE MODELS SUCH AS SHIPS AND THE GFDL HAVE INSISTED ON THE
STRENGTHENING OF ERNESTO.  THESE MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY ON
SEVERAL TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR.  APPARENTLY THEY ARE NOT AS
CAPABLE TO PREDICT WEAKENING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT AS THEY ARE TO PREDICT STRENGTHENING IN A FAVORABLE ONE.
 
THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON ERNESTO UNLESS REGENERATION
OCCURS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 20.0N  59.0W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     04/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
NNNN