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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2000

A LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH...UNUSUALLY STRONG FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER...IS SITUATED ABOUT 15 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF ERNESTO. 
THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE THE LOW CLOUD CENTER IS STILL NEAR THE EDGE
OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...DATA T-NUMBERS FROM THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
STILL GIVE AN INTENSITY ESTIMATE NEAR 35 KNOTS.  SINCE THE SHEAR HAS
BEEN PERSISTENT...NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST AS IN PREVIOUS
ADVISORIES.  THERE IS OF COURSE A CAVEAT HERE...NAMELY THAT WE HAVE
VERY LIMITED SKILL IN PREDICTING INTENSITY CHANGE.

MOTION CONTINUES WNW...295/15.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS ERNESTO
MOVING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
ANTICYCLONE.  OTHER TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO AND SHOW A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ONE EXCEPT THAT IT IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD.  THE U.K. MET OFFICE...BAROTROPIC...AND DEEP BAM TRACKS ARE
EVEN FARTHER EAST.   
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 19.6N  57.2W    35 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 20.5N  59.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 21.8N  61.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 23.0N  63.0W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 24.5N  64.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     06/1200Z 28.5N  65.5W    35 KTS
 
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