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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2000
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT
HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH
CIRCULATION AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND A
FEW DRIFTING BUOY OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA.
THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE AND LIKE MOST TROPICAL
DEPRESSIONS...THE CENTER IS POORLY DEFINED AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE INITIAL LOCATION WILL PROBABLY BE NECESSARY.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES
ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A RIDGE WESTWARD
WHICH WOULD MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD BRING THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEATHER NORTH OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.
THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY...AS USUAL...IS THE INTENSITY FORECAST. WV
IMAGES AND RAOBS FROM THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONGER THAN
NORMAL SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION. THIS PATTERN IS UNFAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
STRENGTHEN. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING THESE WINDS TO
WEAKEN BUT THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED SO FAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR ONLY SMALL INCREASE IN INTENSITY BEFORE THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE HOSTILE AREA. HOWEVER...ONLY A SMALL
RELAXATION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS....AS INDICATED BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...COULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
INDICATED AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST WOULD BE BUSTED.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0300Z 15.5N 48.6W 30 KTS
12HR VT 02/1200Z 15.8N 50.5W 35 KTS
24HR VT 03/0000Z 16.5N 53.0W 35 KTS
36HR VT 03/1200Z 17.0N 55.0W 35 KTS
48HR VT 04/0000Z 18.0N 57.0W 35 KTS
72HR VT 05/0000Z 20.0N 61.0W 35 KTS
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