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TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000

...CORRECTION...CHANGE WINDWARD TO LEEWARD ISLANDS...

ONCE AGAIN THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE.  A RECENT SSM/I IMAGE
INDICATES A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION.  HOWVER THE CDO
FEATURE IS LARGE...COLD...AND SYMMETRIC AND SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY
IS 45 KNOTS BASED ON THE POOR LOW LEVEL ORGAINIZATION.  THE SHIPS
MODEL CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO 80 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS WITH WARM SSTS
AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LIMITING VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
DOES LIKEWISE...ALTHOUGH THE STORM IS GOING TO HAVE TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED FOR THIS FORECAST TO VERIFY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS
ARE ALL CLUSTERED CLOSELY TOGETHER AROUND A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
TRACK AT 15 KNOTS OR A LITTLE HIGHER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
BASED ON THIS AND IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
EXCEPT FOR ADVANCING EVERYTHING SIX HOURS.  

THE FORECAST TRACK CALLS FOR WATCHES THROUGHOUT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
FROM NORTH OF DOMINICA THROUGH THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE
GOVERNMENTS OF ANTIGUA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND GUADELOUPE
HAVE BEEN COORDINATED WITH.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 15.4N  52.9W    45 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 16.1N  55.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 17.0N  59.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 17.6N  62.5W    65 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 18.6N  65.8W    70 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  71.5W    80 KTS
  
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