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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 17 2000
 
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS PRETTY MEAGER...THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS DEVELOPED A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SIX.  OUTFLOW IS LIMITED TO THE NORTH AND WEST QUADRANTS UNDER LIGHT
SHEAR FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  BOTH THE GFDL AND SHIPS INDICATE
STRENGTHENING...BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM GETTING OUT OF THE WAY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/10.  ONLY A WEAK RIDGE IS PRESENT IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE FLOW AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION...AND THIS TRACK
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS BY KEEPING THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN.  HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO DEVELOP DEEP
CONVECTION THEN IT COULD TRACK TO THE LEFT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...AS INDICATED BY THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM.    
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 14.9N  53.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 15.3N  54.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 16.0N  56.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 16.6N  58.2W    45 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  60.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 20.0N  64.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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