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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2000
 
IT IS OF COURSE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
ON INFRARED IMAGERY...IF IT EXISTS.  I AM PLACING IT NEAR THE CENTER
OF A RECENT BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR LACK OF A BETTER PLACE TO
PUT IT.  PIBALS FROM MEXICO...COURTESY OF NOAA/NSSL PAN AM SOUNDING
NETWORK...SHOW THAT ANY LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MUST BE SMALL AS A
PIBAL JUST NORTHEAST OF CARMEN SHOWS LIGHT ENE WINDS AT 300 M.  THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ASSUMED TO BE 320/05...ALTHOUGH A STATIONARY
MOTION WAS USED TO INITIALIZE THE TRACK MODELS.  THE MODELS SHOW A
SLOW WEST THROUGH NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS BASED ON
STEERING FROM A HIGH HOLDING OVER NORTH TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO.  THE
UKMET IS QUITE SLOW NEARING THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IN 72 HOURS WHILE
THE GFDL SHOWS A LANDFALL IN 24 HOURS JUST SOUTH OF THE US/MEX
BORDER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE EXTREMES WITH A
LANDFALL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS NEAR THE BORDER.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB TO 25
KNOTS FROM SAB AND AFWA BASED ON LARGE VARIATIONS IN CENTER
POSITION.  THE INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BASED
ON A NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE CLOUD PATTERN OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER IT IS
NOTED THAT THE RECENT CONVECTIVE BURST COULD SIGNAL THE BEGINNING OF
SOME SERIOUS INTENSIFICATION...BUT A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
TAKE A LOOK AT 12Z.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL SUGGESTS THAT WIND
SPEEDS COULD REACH 70 KNOTS IF THE CENTER REMAINS OVER WATER FOR 72
HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TAKES THE WINDS TO 65 KNOTS IN 48
HOURS...ACTUALLY IN ABOUT 42 HOURS...JUST BEFORE THE FORECAST
LANDFALL. 

WHILE IT IS POSSIBLE TO JUSTIFY A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A SMALL
PORTION OF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...IT IS
RECOMMENDED THAT WE WAIT UNTIL DAYLIGHT AND THE RECON INFORMATION
BEFORE ISSUING ANY WATCHES.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0900Z 23.2N  94.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1800Z 23.7N  94.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/0600Z 24.4N  95.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/1800Z 25.3N  96.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/0600Z 26.0N  97.8W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     17/0600Z 27.5N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
  
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