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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2000
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT WAS OUT IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE FOR THE BETTER PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND FOUND A BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH MULTIPLE SMALL VORTICES ROTATING AROUND THE
INNER EDGE OF THE LARGER ENVELOPE. STRONGEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AT
1000 FT WERE ABOUT 35 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30
KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND KGWC.
 
UNTIL A DEFINITE CENTER DEVELOPS...SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT WHEN ONLY INFRARED SATELLITE FIXES
WILL BE AVAILABLE. 00Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE THE STRONG RIDGE TO
THE NORTH CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS HAS MOVED LITTLE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE THROUGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ALSO REMAINED STATIONARY. THE RESULT IS A WEAK
STEERING FLOW PATTERN FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AFTER WHICH THE
MODELS ALL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT THE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH
ALLOWS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS CUBA TO BUILD WESTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...
BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS MOST OF OUR MODEL GUIDANCE. THE GFDL TAKES
THE DEPRESSION FARTHEST NORTH TOWARD CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS IN 48
HOURS...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE EXCESSIVE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...IF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER CUBA BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE
YUCATAN AND UNDERCUTS THE SYSTEM...THEN THIS COULD IMPART A MORE
POLEWARD TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE GFDL...AND THIS IS THE REASON WHY
THE FORECAST TRACK WAS KEPT CLOSE TO MIDLE OF THE FORECAST MODEL
ENVELOPE.
 
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS INCREASED WITH THE DEPRESSION FORECAST TO
REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW AND HURRICANE STRENGTH ON
TUESDAY. THE SHIPS OUTPUT USED IN THE FIRST ADVISORY WAS BASED ON
THE LBAR MODEL TRACK WHICH HAD THE SYSTEM INLAND IN 36 HOURS. THE
LATEST LBAR RUN DOES THE SAME THING. WITH THE DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LONGER OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST GULF AND IN
A LOW/NO SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...STEADY INTENSIFICATION SEEMS
REASONABLE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 22.9N  93.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 23.4N  93.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 24.0N  94.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 24.7N  95.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 25.5N  97.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 27.0N 100.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
  
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