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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 09 2000
 
THE PERSISTENT SMALL LOW EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST HAS
DEVELOPED INTO TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR.  THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
IS STILL RATHER SPORADIC AND DISORGANIZED.  INDEED...THE SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 25 KT AND TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY.  HOWEVER...
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS BETTER DEFINED THAN YESTERDAY. IT
MUST BE NOTED THAT THE SYSTEM IS SMALL...WITH 30 KT MAXIMUM WINDS
CONFINED TO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/3.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT CAUSED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A LARGER
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE EAST.  THIS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HR OR SO.  AFTER THAT...A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH
SHOULD SWEEP THE SYSTEM OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC.  NHC TRACK MODEL
GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

IT IS UNCERTAIN WHAT IS HOLDING THE SYSTEM TOGETHER GIVEN THE LACK
OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION.  WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY EASTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CENTER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.  THE SHIPS MODEL TAKES THE DEPRESSION TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HR.  THE INTENSITY WILL NOT FOLLOW THAT. 
INSTEAD... THE FORECAST INTENSITY WILL STAY 30 KT UNTIL MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION FORMS.

WITH THE SMALL SIZE AND SLOW MOTION...THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY A
THREAT PRIMARILY TO MARINE INTERESTS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/1500Z 27.9N  77.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     10/0000Z 27.9N  78.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     10/1200Z 28.0N  78.6W    30 KTS
36HR VT     11/0000Z 28.3N  79.1W    30 KTS
48HR VT     11/1200Z 28.5N  79.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     12/1200Z 29.5N  77.0W    30 KTS
 
 
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