HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  74
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2000
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/17.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE
HURRICANE ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND MERGING WITH A
LOW AND TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER GREENLAND AND
EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  ALBERTO WILL BE
OVER SSTS BELOW 20 DEG C IN 12 HOURS...AND SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL
IN 24 HOURS.

THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE AVIATION MODEL AND IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND ACCELERATES THE
FORWARD SPEED TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS.

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 65 TO 75 KNOTS.  THE
INITIAL OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS PUT AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE COLD
WATER MAKING THE LOWER LAYER MORE STABLE.  WEAKENING TO 50 KNOTS IS
FORECAST AT 24 HOURS FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 45.0N  43.4W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 47.7N  41.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 53.0N  38.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     24/0000Z 60.5N  36.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
NNNN