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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  72
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
 
ALTHOUGH THE EYE HAS TAKEN ON AN ELLIPTICAL SHAPE AND BEGUN TO
SHRINK IN SIZE...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 75 KNOTS AS PER
DVORAK ANALYSES.  HOWEVER...THIS HERALDS THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEAKENING PROCESS AS THE EYE IS CURRENTLY OVER 24 DEGREE C WATER
WITH SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER WATERS TO THE NORTH.  THE SYSTEM IS
LIKELY TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS TOMORROW...AND EVENTUALLY
MERGE WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING
AT 025/12.  THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME AS IN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF ADVISORIES. CONTINUED ACCELERATION IS
EXPECTED AS ALBERTO GETS PICKED UP BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND AVN
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 41.8N  45.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 43.9N  44.4W    70 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 47.7N  41.7W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     23/1200Z 52.3N  37.6W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     24/0000Z 57.7N  31.8W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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