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HURRICANE ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  69
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 21 2000
 
AFTER 68 ADVISORIES...WHAT CAN YOU SAY ABOUT ALBERTO THAT HASNT
ALREADY BEEN SAID.  THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS LOOKING A LITTLE
RAGGED.  SATELLITE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE COMING DOWN AND
NOW RANGE FROM 65 TO 90 KT...AND SO THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ALBERTO
TRACKS OVER VERY COLD WATER AFTER 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL BE
NEGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 020/5.  ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ALBERTO WILL BE PICKED UP BY A MAJOR TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND ACCELERATE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD. 
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL BE ABSORBED BY A SYNOPTIC
SCALE LOW BEYOND 48 HOURS. 
  
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 38.8N  47.3W    75 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 39.6N  46.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 41.7N  45.7W    65 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 45.7N  43.2W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     23/0600Z 51.0N  39.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     24/0600Z ...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW... 
 
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